Campaigns Spin Debate As A Win: But Do Debates Matter?
TSwift & the history of presidential celeb endorsements
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Good morning,
Attention Harry Potter superfans, the search for the next Harry, Ron and Hermione has begun.
Audition submissions for HBO’s upcoming “Harry Potter” TV series are due by Oct. 31. Filming is set to take place in the UK in 2025 and 2026.
It is set to last seven seasons, and follow the books more closely than the films.
The show is looking for children who will be between the ages of 9-11 in April 2025. The catch: They have to be a resident of the UK and Ireland.
Here’s Daniel Radcliffe’s screen test. Will there ever be another?
We’re still waiting for our letter from Hogwarts!
Mosheh, Jill, & Lauren
PS: Don’t forget to refer friends & family to subscribe to the Mo Newsletter… you could get free Mo News merch — DETAILS at the bottom of this newsletter!
📌 DEBATE DUST SETTLES: HOW MUCH WILL IT IMPACT THE RACE?
From Fox News to CNN, political pundits, strategists from both parties (and even some close Trump allies like RFK Jr.) agree that Vice President Kamala Harris won what may be the only debate between herself and former President Donald Trump.
But will it change anything? The polling also showed that only 4% of the voters who watched Tuesday’s debate said it changed their minds about whom to vote for. But with national polling nearly tied, and swing-states just as close, 4% might make all the difference
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE NUMBERS
69% of Trump supporters who watched said he had a better night, compared to 96% of Harris supporters who thought she won.
That’s similar to the number of Biden supporters who acknowledged Trump won the June 27 debate. CNN’s flash poll from that debate showed Trump won against Biden 67-33. The numbers have flipped this time around.
The Washington Post found that the debate appeared to have solidified voters’ support for Harris if they had leaned in that direction.
Polls of swing-state voters did not show a clear consensus. In small pools of voters, Reuters showed more undecided voters moving to Trump, while the Washington Post had more going to Harris.
On the issues:
DEBATES DON’T WIN ELECTIONS
That’s what a Harris campaign email reminded fundraisers after the debate. The evidence is mixed on how much debates actually help.
Looking at modern debate performances, Harris did well. And, while a win in the first debate helps in the polls historically, it doesn’t guarantee eventual victory.
2020: Biden won first debate and won the election.
2016: Hillary Clinton won the first debate and lost the election.
2012: Mitt Romney won the first debate against then-President Barack Obama. Romney lost the election.
AND MORE
Among debate watchers, Harris’s favorability increased from 39% before the debate to 45%. That’s the biggest gain of any presidential candidate since CNN started asking the question in 2008.
Early numbers show at least 67 million Americans watched the debate live on TV across 8 major networks— about 25% more than watched the Trump-Biden June debate. That number doesn’t even count those watching on YouTube and via social media.
At this point, it’s not clear whether there will be a SECOND Harris-Trump debate. Trump told "Fox and Friends" on Wednesday that he is "less inclined" to participate in another debate before the election because he thinks won this one. But, he told reporters later on Wednesday that he’s still thinking about it.
📌 HISTORY OF CELEBRITY PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENTS
Trump pushed back on Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris on Wednesday in his post-debate press tour. He claimed that he thinks the singer will “probably pay a price for it in the marketplace” and said he prefers Brittany Mahomes, the wife of Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, and Swift friend. Mahomes recently liked pro-Trump comments on social media.
Trump also said he was not surprised. Before 2018, Swift had largely stayed out of politics. But for the 2020 presidential election, she backed Biden and Harris, posting that she was "Gonna be watching [the VP debate] and supporting @KamalaHarris by yelling at the tv a lot."
This time around, her post she helped direct more than 330,000 people to Vote.gov where they can register to vote.
Swift’s 2018 post endorsing a Tennessee Democratic running for senate helped spark 65,000 people between the ages of 18 to 29 to register to vote. Though, that candidate ultimately lost their race.
For the people wondering why we care about singers or actors supporting a political candidate, there is a 100+ year history of celeb presidential endorsements. Two celebs even got into politics themselves and were elected president. (Any guesses? Answer below)
HOW WE GOT HERE
The trend began with the 1920 election when singer/actor Al Jolson went on the campaign trail to support Republican Senator Warren G. Harding’s successful bid for the White House.
Baseball legend Babe Ruth turned down a photo with Herbert Hoover during the 1928 campaign due to his support for presidential hopeful Al Smith.
In a radio address that year, Ruth said: “What a wonderful thing it is to think that…There is a chance for every boy to get to the top in America, whether he wants to be a president or a ball player.”
Hoover would still win the election despite losing Ruth’s support.
Frank Sinatra, Humphrey Bogart, Rita Hayworth and Orson Welles joined Franklin D. Roosevelt on the campaign trail in his 1944 reelection bid. Sinatra went on to support John F. Kennedy’s 1960 campaign by hosting fundraisers and turning his song “High Hopes” into the campaign anthem.
But, JFK ditched Sinatra due to his mob ties, which pushed the singer to the Republican party. He went on to support his friend, actor Ronald Reagan, for California governor in the 70s and president in the 80s.
BTW: Reagan and Trump are the two celebrities who eventually won the presidency.
In recent elections, Democrats have received the lion’s share of A-list support. From Jane Fonda to Megan Thee Stallion— Harris campaign events and the Democratic National Convention have been star-studded. Trump tried to take a page from the same playbook with Hulk Hogan speaking on the final night of the Republican National Convention.
DOES IT HELP?
A Harvard University study published this summer found that the power of celebrity is tied to higher rates of online voter registration and poll worker sign-ups. The research did not look at whether specific candidates or parties are impacted.
The libertarian political think tank the Beacon Center found in April that 12% of Tennessee Swifties said that her endorsement of a candidate would make them more likely to vote for that person.
“Political candidates are heavily leaning on celebrities as a mechanism to attract the attention of this cycle’s youngest voting demographic: Generation Z,” says Melvin Williams, a professor of communications and media studies at Pace University.
A major uptick in Gen Z turnout in 2020 helped Biden secure the presidency. Gen Z and Millennials, who will comprise the largest US voting block by 2028, spend an average of 180 minutes and 157 minutes daily on social media.
⏳ SPEED READ
🚨NATION
📌 Speaker Mike Johnson yanks government funding bill amid growing GOP defections (NBC NEWS)
📌 Wildfires scorch Southern California hillsides, torching homes and injuring several (AP)
📌 Mother of Apalachee High School shooter apologizes to victims’ families in open letter (CNN)
📌 Biden, Harris, Trump, Vance appear together at 9/11 memorial ceremony in New York City (CBS NEWS)
📌 State and election officials issue warning over potential voting disruptions (AXIOS)
🌎 AROUND THE WORLD
📌 Israeli official floats safe passage for Oct. 7 architect Yahya Sinwar in return for hostages (CNN)
📌 Mexico’s Senate approves contentious judicial overhaul after protesters storm chamber (AP)
📌 Top US and UK diplomats pledge almost $1.5B in additional aid for Ukraine during visit to Kyiv, but no breakthrough on strikes into Russia (REUTERS)
📌 China mulls raising retirement age as it confronts shrinking workforce (SEMAFOR)
📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH
📌 Spacewalking is the new domain of the rich as billionaire attempts first private spacewalk today (AP)
📌 New CPI report shows another month of cooling inflation— what it means (ABC NEWS)
📌 Lead, arsenic and other heavy metals in tampons prompt FDA investigation (CNN)
📌 The gender wage gap just widened for the first time in 20 years (AXIOS)
🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT
📌 Justin Timberlake snags plea deal in DWI case, will dodge drunk driving charges (NY POST)
📌 Danity Kane singer Dawn Richard sues Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs for sexual assault (PEOPLE)
📌 Dave Grohl hired divorce lawyer before love child reveal (DAILY BEAST)
📌 Incredible moment rock legend Bon Jovi convinces woman not to leap from bridge while filming music video in Nashville (DAILY MAIL)
🗓 ON THIS DAY: SEPTEMBER 12
1953: Senator John F. Kennedy married Jacqueline Bouvier in Newport, Rhode Island. Seven years later, the couple would become the youngest president and first lady in American history.
1959: The Soviet Union launched Luna 2, the first space probe to land on the Moon.
1984: Michael Jordan signs his first contract with the Chicago Bulls.
1998: Lauryn Hill's solo album, ‘The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill,’ debuts at #1 in the US