Could Trump Lock In The Nomination Today?
Also: U.S. producing more oil than any country...ever, Biden write-in campaign, & Germans look to ban far-right party
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Good morning,
Are you someone who won’t let company come over without an immaculate house?
Well, some families are saying sayonara to the panic and embracing “scruffy hospitality.”
The idea is to welcome visitors even if your house is… “lived-in.” Laundry on the 🛋 and dishes undone. Turns out that enough pandemic-era Zooms have us letting down our guard and saying yes to the mess in person.
Have a good one!
Mosheh, Jill, & Lauren
📌 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY DAY
How Haley & Trump are splitting the vote. Via Washington Post
Two new polls out Monday point to a potentially big win today in New Hampshire for former President Trump. He’s been slowly increasing his lead over his last GOP opponent standing, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. In one poll by Suffolk University, Trump led Haley by 19 points, 57 percent to 38 percent. That said, New Hampshire is notoriously unpredictable and voters like to their own thing, so we will be watching results closely tonight.
WILDCARD: Independent voters, who make up nearly 40% of registered voters in the state, can pick which primary they want to vote in— either the Republican or Democratic. Polls show that Haley has an edge with them. Meanwhile, Trump is dominating Republican voters.
The New Hampshire Secretary of State predicts record breaking voter turn-out.
EXPECTATION GAME: Haley is not expected to win in New Hampshire; even her campaign has tamped down expectations. So the question is: How close does she have to come in order for her to stay in this race?
If she can pull off a surprise win or keep a Trump victory to within single digits, she could see additional interest from donors and look ahead to finally picking up some wins when a dozen+ states vote on Super Tuesday in early March. But, if Trump can stay close to his current polling margin—20 points—she will face pressure to suspend her effort.
NOTE: The South Carolina primary takes place next month. Haley currently trails Trump badly in the polls in a state where she served as governor for six years. A loss her home state would be very embarrassing and hard to recover from.
AND THEN THERE’S THE DEMOCRATS
We’ve been getting a lot of questions about what is happening in terms of the Democratic race in New Hampshire and the short answer is: “It’s complicated.”
The DNC switched up the primary calendar this year, making South Carolina the first voting state because it’s more representative of the Democratic party in terms of demographics.
But New Hampshire refused to comply with the new schedule.
Their state law actually says that the New Hampshire primary needs to be at least seven days before any other state.
In response, the Biden campaign didn’t put his name on the ballot in the state.
But…. some of the lesser known challengers did join the ballot, like Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson.
And now the White House doesn’t like the optics of potentially losing in the state, so Biden allies launched a write-in campaign. (It is not officially being run by the DNC or the Biden campaign)
Phillips is probably most serious challenger. He agrees with many of Biden’s policies, but says Biden is too old to be president.
What polls say: 63% of voters plan to write-in Biden, 10% say they’ll vote for Phillips, and 9% go to Williamson.
Polls close at 8 p.m. ET. We’ll have the results over on our Instagram and back here tomorrow.
🇩🇪 1 MILLION+ GERMANS PROTEST FAR-RIGHT
Protesters in Bermen, Germany on Jan. 21. Via: AP.
More than 1.4 million Germans took to the streets to demonstrate against right-wing extremism in the country. It comes after a report said that members of Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party — which has been growing in popularity — met to discuss a plan for mass deportations based on people's "ethnicity." Some demonstrators are calling on the country to ban the AfD party.
Correctiv, a nonprofit research institute, reported that in November 2023, AfD members met with far-right extremists to discuss a "remigration" plan.
The Washington Post reports that the plan focuses on "asylum seekers, non-Germans with residency rights and ‘non-assimilated’ German citizens.”
They discussed sending people to a "model state" in North Africa. This is particularly alarming, and reminiscent of the Nazi plan to deport millions of Jews to Madagascar in 1940.
This mass deportation was discussed as a possibility if the AfD party comes to power after the European Parliament elections in less than six months.
📈 In the polls: Elections are coming up this spring. The AfD is growing increasingly populars—-now polling at about 23%, single digits behind the leading conservative party. Popularity for Germany’s center-left governing coalition has plummeted following spikes in costs of living, a budget crisis, and an ongoing immigration debate.
WHAT THEY SAY
The AfD has tried to distance themselves from the meetings, saying they did not organize nor finance the event, and that members who were there attended on a personal basis.
CAN A PARTY BE BANNED?
Yes, but the legal hurdles to ban a party are significant in Germany. The party that formed after the Nazi party, The Socialist Reich Party, was banned in 1952, followed by the Communist Party of Germany in 1956.
⛽️ US PRODUCES MORE OIL THAN ANY COUNTRY… EVER
Oil production in the US. Via: Yahoo Finance.
Here’s a major headline that you probably wouldn’t expect: The US is now officially producing more oil a day than any country in history.
ALL THE JUICE
The US has been pumping out a record-breaking 13.3 million barrels a day — and it’s been helping keep gas prices down.
13.2 million barrels a day was the previous record, which was just in November.
That’s a lot more than Russia's 9.5 million barrels a day and Saudi Arabia's rate of 9.1 million barrels — both members of OPEC+, a group of oil-rich countries that once dominated the price of oil globally. The US, Canada, Brazil and other non-OPEC+ countries now control 52% of the global market.
And the US is using fewer oil rigs while producing much more oil: about 501 oil rigs compared to the 1,600 used in 2014. It’s a sign of how efficient America's energy industry has become.
WHY HAVEN’T I HEARD ABOUT THIS?
The Biden White House isn’t crowing about this for fear of upsetting progressives and environmentalists on the left. Meanwhile, leading Republicans prefer to hammer the president for not being open enough to drilling— in their view— and limiting energy growth.
⏳ SPEED READ
🚨NATION
📌 Supreme Court allows Biden administration to remove razor wire on US-Mexico border put there by Texas (CNN)
📌 Biden administration announces new abortion initiatives on Roe anniversary (MO NEWS)
📌 Thousands of faculty walk off the job at largest university system in US (USA TODAY)
📌 Judge unseals Fulton County prosecutor's divorce case, Fani Willis deposition delayed (FOX NEWS)
🌎 AROUND THE WORLD
📌 US, UK stage multiple airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen (ABC NEWS)
📌 Gaza hostage relatives storm Israeli parliament committee meeting to demand action (MO NEWS)
📌 Israel proposes 2-month pause in fighting in order to free hostages (AXIOS)
📌 Canada sets two-year cap on foreign students (BBC)
📌 Navy identifies 2 SEALs declared dead after going missing during nighttime mission in Arabian Sea (FOX NEWS)
📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH
📌 L’Oreal CEO: Working remotely is bad for mental health and reduces creativity (MO NEWS)
📌 Elon Musk visits Auschwitz after uproar over antisemitic messages on X (AP)
📌 World's first malaria vaccine program for children starts in Cameroon (NBC NEWS)
📌 Solar storm could impact GPS and power grids this week (ABC)
📌 The FAA says airlines should check the door plugs on an another Boeing plane model (NPR)
🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT
📌 New ‘Jurassic World’ movie in the works from writer of original 1993 ‘Jurassic Park’ and its sequel (PEOPLE)
📌 Jennifer Hudson and Common hint they’re dating each other during her talk show (USA TODAY)
📌 Grand Ole Opry apologizes for Elle King's showing at Dolly Parton's 78th birthday bash (YAHOO NEWS)
📌 A 20-year-old amateur golfer just won a PGA Tour event. But he’s not allowed to collect the $1.5 million prize (CNN)
🗓 ON THIS DAY: JANUARY 23
1849: Elizabeth Blackwell became the first women in the US to earn a medical degree.
In 2017, a majority of medical students in the US were women for the first time.
1943: ‘Casablanca’ premiered in theaters, starring Humphrey Bogart and Ingrid Bergman. Here’s looking at you, kid.
1957: The Frisbee is first introduced by the Wham-O toy company.
1984: Michael Jackson releases “Thriller” single.
1985: Madonna’s ‘Material Girl’ was released.