What a shutdown actually means and how likely it is to happen

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Prince William went where few others (besides Cosmo Kramer) have gone before— into the East River.

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🗞 COUNTDOWN TO A SHUTDOWN

The US is inching closer to a potential government shutdown. The deadline is next Saturday, September 30th. The core issue is how much money the government should spend next year. But the fight over the budget has broken down into fighting among House Republican members.

WAIT, DIDN’T WE ALREADY DO THIS!?
Earlier this year, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden agreed on a $1.6 trillion dollar budget, but over the last few weeks members of the hard-right, House Freedom Caucus have said they want to cut that down to $1.4 trillion.

SO WHAT’S ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK?
A small group of very conservative House Republicans are looking for tens of billions of dollars in additional cuts to the IRS, SEC, Consumer Product Safety Commission, the education department, and a long list of other federal agencies.

Overall, they’re asking to cut discretionary spending by about 8% for agencies outside of defense, veterans affairs, and disaster relief. That is despite the reality that there is no support for their proposals beyond their small group.
Some moderate House Republicans as well as all House Democrats have said this is a no-go.
In the Senate, the Democratic majority and even some Republicans have also been vocally opposed to the far-right demands.
Beyond that, any final compromise bill would need to be signed by President Biden.

REPUBLICAN VS REPUBLICAN

Typically congressional fights are across party lines, but this time the GOP is fighting amongst itself. And it’s making Speaker McCarthy’s job nearly impossible, as he deals with a group of far-right conservatives who say they are happy to shut down the government over spending demands.

McCarthy only has a five-seat majority, so that requires near unanimity to pass anything. However, even if he could get something through, and that is a big if, he will face opposition from the Senate and the White House.

His calls for his right flank to be practical, given the realities of split government, are falling on deaf ears. House Democrats are now actually engaged in negotiations to help McCarthy win votes on their side. However, that is a tricky dance as it will upset the right flank and imperil McCarthy’s leadership position. Translation: What keeps the government open could mean the end of his speakership.

WHAT WILL A SHUTDOWN MEAN?

As soon as the government runs out of funding, hundreds and thousands of federal workers will be sent home and will be unpaid for the duration of the shutdown (although they’ll eventually get backpay when the shutdown is over). Certain “essential” workers will continue to work but will also be unpaid.

WHAT STAYS OPEN & WHO REMAINS WORKING:

Any position that deals with public safety
Postal workers
Military operations
Air traffic control (although in 2019 they eventually stopped working)
Medical care of veterans
SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) continues, but some food stamp benefits may not be sent out.

WHAT CLOSES:

National parks, national monuments, and Smithsonian museums
Delays in processing passport and visa applications
Disruption to environmental and food inspections
National Institutes of Health (NIH) cannot enroll new patients

PAST SHUTDOWNS:

*House Speaker Newt Gingrich, President Bill Clinton and Senate Maj. Leader Bob Dole*

There have been 14 shutdowns since 1981, ranging in duration from a single day to a 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019.

🗓 December 16, 1995, to January 6, 1996, President: Bill Clinton

The second-longest shutdown in U.S. history lasted 21 days. Republicans who had just taken control of Congress were demanding spending cuts to key programs. 284,000 workers were furloughed.

🗓 October 1 to 17, 2013, President: Barack Obama

Congress failed to come to an agreement on a budget after Republican lawmakers began pushing to defund Obamacare. 800,000 federal employees were out of work without pay. In addition, more than a million other working employees had their paychecks delayed.

🗓 January 20 to 22, 2018, President: Donald Trump

The three-day shutdown was over immigration. Democrats tried to save DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrival) by blocking the funding bill, which forced a shutdown.

🗓 December 22, 2018 - January 25, 2019, President: Donald Trump

35 Days. The longest shutdown in U.S. history. It began over a dispute between President Trump and Congress over funding over the U.S.-Mexico border wall. It ended when air traffic controllers stopped reporting to work, causing major delays in airports on the East Coast. Trump never got his wall funding.

✔︎ Mo News Reality Check: There are still nine days left until the deadline, but it’s looking unlikely that Kevin McCarthy can wrangle his far-right flank. Translation: The likelihood of a government shutdown is high.

McCarthy has told Republicans to prepare to work all weekend. It looks like the best hope at this point to avoid a shutdown is for Congress to pass a 30-day budget extension. Which means that we’ll be back where we started in a month from now. Notably, his other option is to work with House Democrats to get something passed, but that could cost him his leadership job.

⏳ SPEED READ

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🗓 ON THIS DAY: SEPTEMBER 21

1939: President Franklin Roosevelt appears before Congress and asks that the Neutrality Acts, a series of laws passed earlier in the decade, be amended. Roosevelt hoped to lift an embargo against sending military aid to countries in Europe facing the onslaught of Nazi aggression. Congress said okay. But at the time, polling showed Americans did not want to get involved in any war and were split on who they sided with— the Nazis or the allies.

1983: Motorola's DynaTAC 8000X, the world's first commercial portable cellular phone, received approval from the FCC.
1985: A little-known 24-year-old actor named George Clooney makes his first appearance as a handyman on the popular TV sitcom The Facts of Life. Clooney appeared in 17 episodes. Years later, he moved on to Hollywood superstardom in the hit TV medical drama ER and films like The Perfect Storm and Ocean’s Eleven.
1998: ‘Will & Grace’ premiered, starring Eric McCormack and Debra Messing.