Plus, Will the House & Senate flip? The close races we are watching

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Good morning,

It’s the day we’ve been talking about for… years? Election Day 2024.

For those of you who have already voted by mail, if you live outside of Illinois, Missouri and Wyoming, then you can check the status of your ballot online. Go here for more info.
- Some counties in those three states have tracking. Check with your local officials.
- Some states— including swing states North Carolina and Georgia— require mail-in ballots to be received by Election Day to count. Most other states allow ballot delivery from three to 10 days after today but check your state here.
For those of you who like to wait (or procrastinate) until Election Day (Jill and Lauren on the Mo News team), find your polling place here.

And if you’re feeling more…

we’re here for you too.

Check out live coverage of election results on the Mo News Instagram all day and all night!

Deep breaths, we got you!

Mosheh, Jill, & Lauren

PS: Don’t forget to refer friends & family to subscribe to the Mo Newsletter… you could get free Mo News merch — DETAILS at the bottom of this newsletter!

📣 THE DISPATCH: NO OUTRAGE. JUST FACTS.

Sick of the half-truths and partisan spin this election cycle? Get past the bluster and get back to the facts by joining The Dispatch.

Jonah Goldberg and Steve Hayes launched The Dispatch in 2019 to build an enduring presence on the center-right for original reporting and thoughtful analysis. No insulting clickbait, no false outrage, no annoying auto-play videos—just reliable journalism that prioritizes context, depth, and understanding.
Join half a million loyal readers and start reading The Dispatch today.

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📌 CANDIDATES MAKE FINAL PITCH, WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TONIGHT

Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump spent the final day of campaigning on different paths. Trump conducted events in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan while Harris campaigned exclusively in Pennsylvania. Of the seven swing states, it has the largest number of electoral votes at stake (19), and winning the state would lead to one of the easiest paths to victory.

Results tonight depend on how fast states count their ballots and how close the race is. If polls are right, this could be the closest race in decades. But, if the polling error moves one direction like in 2016, 2020, or 2022, it could be quicker to call a winner.

FINAL PITCH
Both Trump and Harris released their final campaign ads, and they showed more unity than division. Harris vowed to be a "president for all Americans" and described Americans as "neighbors, not enemies.” Trump ends his ad: “It’s the people who are making America great again.” The positive messages come after months of the two candidates claiming the other will effectively bring about the end of America.

Harris’s five stops across the Keystone State ended with rallies/concerts in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia that included Lady Gaga, The Roots, Oprah Winfrey, and Katy Perry.
Trump ended his Pittsburgh rally by bringing out former Fox News host Megyn Kelly— who had criticized his Madison Square Garden rally as “too bro-tastic”—but made the case to vote for the former president. His last stop of the campaign was in Grand Rapids, MI— where he closed out his 2016 and 2020 campaigns.

*When to expect results in swing states. via NY TIMES*

THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
So far, more than 80 million people have voted. One-third of voters say they will vote in person today, including 40% of Trump voters. Counting all the votes— including in swing states— could extend for days or weeks (we are looking at you Arizona).

Why? Election workers in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin cannot start processing mail ballots until Election Day.
- But officials say better equipment and counting mail ballots through the night should lead to faster counts than 2020, when it took four days to call Pennsylvania.
Votes are counted in nearly 10,000 separate jurisdictions. Polls in Arizona and Nevada will just be closing by 11 pm ET.
- Speaking of Arizona, 2020 was so close it took more than two weeks to call the state for Biden after a hand-tallied audit found that he won by 12,000 votes. Recounts vary state-by-state, but that could also delay results.
  - In Maricopa County, Arizona, Recorder Stephen Richer (R) explained Monday that everyone needs be patient as officials tabulate the record large, two-page ballot, with more than 70 races.

Unless there is a major upset, we generally know where the 43 other states are headed: Harris starts at 226 electoral votes and Trump at 219.
- The first swing states to get called will likely be North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan, which could give a sense of which candidate might have the edge.

PATH TO 270
There are a few options for Harris and Trump to secure the presidency.

The simplest for Harris is winning the Blue Wall: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They get her exactly to 270. She would also win if she sweeps the Sun Belt: Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. However, Trump needs at least one of the Blue Wall states to win in any scenario.
- Here are some other possibilities from the Washington Post.

The Harris campaign has predicted Trump will declare victory before the race has been called by any leading news outlets. Trump told ABC News on Sunday that he expects the winner will be clear on election night, but hasn’t revealed much more about his plans.

📌 HOUSE AND SENATE RACES WE ARE WATCHING

All 435 House and 34 Senate seats (they have 6-year terms) are on the ballot. Control of the respective chambers actually hinges on about 20 competitive House races and a handful of toss-up Senate seats.

The US House of Representatives is so tight that a single-seat majority is not outside the realm of possibility. Right now, Republicans have 220 seats and Democrats have 212, with three vacancies.

The GOP will keep control if Republicans win the districts that lean red and secure 10 of the 12 toss-up races held by Republican incumbents.
- Zooming in even closer, the races could come down to a handful of New York’s suburban swing districts and several seats in California.
- New York and California— where six of the 22 toss-up districts are— notoriously can take weeks to count votes and declare winners. So, it could also be awhile before we know who has control on the House.
- Democrats have high hopes for the House, because the Senate is looking like the Republicans may win a majority. Speaking of…..

COMPETITIVE US SENATE RACES

Democrats currently have a slim 51-49 majority, but the GOP is in a good position to flip control. Why?

West Virginia’s Senate seat is set to go Republican with Sen. Joe Manchin departing, bringing the total to 50-50 where the Vice President would have the tie-breaking vote.
But there’s more bad news for Democrats. Democratic Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana are trying to keep their seats in red states— polls are looking especially bad for Tester.
- Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey (D), Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin (D) and the open seat in Michigan where Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring are all toss-ups.
On the other side, Republicans are clinging to slim leads in Nebraska and Texas in seats that Democrats hope to flip.
- Nebraska’s Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is neck-and-neck with Independent Dan Osborn, a former union leader who Democrats expected to caucus with them. Colin Allred has been campaigning to unseat incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), but polls have Cruz holding a very slight edge.

⏳ SPEED READ

🚨NATION

📌 Musk PAC tells Philadelphia judge the $1 million sweepstakes winners were actually not chosen by chance (AP) Judge rules giveaway can continue (CNN)

📌 Former Ohio cop Adam Coy found guilty of murder in fatal 2020 shooting of unarmed Black man Andre Hill (ABC)

📌 Rare drought in Northeast brings a spate of wildfires (NY TIMES) NYC on drought watch (SPECTRUM)

📌 New security fences seen around key DC sites ahead of Election Day (FOX NEWS)

🌎 AROUND THE WORLD

📌 Russia suspected of plotting to send explosive devices on US-bound planes (WSJ)

📌 Hurricane and tropical storm alerts issued for Caymans, Cuba, Jamaica as tropical depression forms in Caribbean (CBS)

📌 EU leaders exult at Moldovan president’s reelection as pro-Russian opposition whines (POLITICO)

📌 Trial opens in France in the beheading of a teacher over prophet cartoons (AP)

📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH

📌 Boeing machinists hold contract vote that could end their 7-week strike (AP)

📌 Americans who bought homes in 2024 were older and richer than ever (CNN)

📌 Watch the AI robots that Jeff Bezos just invested in fold laundry and put eggs in a carton (BI)

📌 New York Times tech union goes on strike, one day before election (NBC)

🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT

📌 Quincy Jones, music titan who worked with everyone from Frank Sinatra to Michael Jackson, dies at 91 (AP)

📌 Ben Affleck calls ex Jennifer Lopez's ‘Unstoppable’ performance 'spectacular': 'really proud' of the film (PEOPLE)

📌 Chris Martin falls into hole in stage during Coldplay gig in Australia (CNN)

📌 'Real Housewives of Beverly Hills' star Teddi Mellencamp files for divorce (TMZ)

🗓 ON THIS DAY: NOVEMBER 5

1872: Suffragist Susan B. Anthony cast a vote in the presidential election despite women not having the right to vote. She was later arrested and fined $100, which she refused to pay, for “knowingly voting without having a lawful right to vote.”
1935: Parker Brothers released 'Monopoly,’ a board game that has sold over 250 million copies, been licensed in over 113 countries, and printed in more than 46 languages.
1940: Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected to an unprecedented third term as president.
1968: Winning one of the closest elections in US history, Republican challenger Richard Nixon beat Vice President Hubert Humphrey by less than 500,000 votes.
- Neither candidate received more than 50% of the popular vote following the strong showing by third-party candidate George Wallace, who won 5 states.