Iowa Caucus Preview: The Battle For Second
Whose voters will the cold weather keep away?
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up!
Good morning,
It’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day — a day of service to honor the civil rights leader’s legacy.
🗓 In 1983, President Ronald Reagan signed a bill making the third Monday in January a federal holiday to celebrate King.
🥳 This year the day falls on King’s actual birthday!
The legislation to recognize MLK Day was first introduced four days after his assassination on April 4, 1968. But, it took 15 years of persistence by civil rights activists for the holiday to be approved by the federal government.
Stevie Wonder released his song "Happy Birthday" as an ode to King's vision, which galvanized public support for the holiday.
Here’s a list of places that will be closed today. But, called to volunteer, it’s actually a “day on, not a day off!”
Have a good one!
Mosheh, Jill, & Lauren
🗞 TRUMP IS SET TO WIN IOWA: THE DRAMA IS IN THE BATTLE FOR SECOND
Trump campaigning in Iowa this weekend. Via: AP
Let the voting begin! Today Iowa kicks off the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.
Former President Donald Trump is polling at just above 50%, the largest lead in Iowa caucus history, so the big questions tonight are:
1. How much does Trump win by?
2. Who will finish in second: Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis?
🌡 BRR THAT’S COLD
The caucuses start at 7 p.m. CT, when wind chill could reach life-threatening conditions, down to -35 in some parts of the state, according to the National Weather Service. Temperatures are not forecast to rise above -2 all day.
Only about 20% of eligible caucusgoers actually participate, and it’s expected that even less will show up because of the weather.
📊 RACE FOR SECOND
The last poll before Republican caucusgoers vote shows 48% of Republicans picking Trump for president—a 28 point lead over Haley, who has made her way to second place.
Haley is up 4% since the last poll in December, now at 20%. She has shown the most upward momentum since the start of the caucus cycle, the Des Moines Register reports.
DeSantis has fallen 3% to third place at 16%, despite visiting all 99 counties, spending tens of millions on ads and placing a huge bet on a big finish in Iowa.
There has been little movement in the polls over the last year, despite more than $100 million in ad spending by the candidates in the state.
Via: Des Moines Register
Trump appears to have the most motivated Iowa voters, with about 9 out of 10 of his supporters saying they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for him. That compares to 6 out of 10 DeSantis voters and 4 out of 10 Haley voters, who describe themselves the same way.
Trump’s strongest groups are first-time caucusgoers (56%), registered Republicans (54%), evangelical Christians (51%) and likely caucusgoers without college degrees (59%). Meanwhile, Haley’s biggest groups are independents (33%) and those with college degrees (27%). Her challenge in Iowa and across the country: Trump remains extremely popular among the party base and has the support of the biggest groups that make up GOP primary voters.
REMIND ME, CAUCUS VS PRIMARY
While primaries are run much like general elections (polling places, a secret ballot, and many hours to vote), Iowa’s caucuses are more like neighborhood meetings.
Iowa Republicans are planning meetings at 1,657 caucus sites this year. They are essentially party meetings, where representatives for each campaign pitch their candidate, and then all attendees cast secret ballots.
🗳 The results of the GOP vote will determine how many of the state’s 40 convention delegates each candidate will receive.
Iowa’s delegates only count for 1.6% of the national GOP delegates. Iowa’s impact is less about how many delegates are assigned by Iowa, and more about how the first-in-the-nation vote sets the tone and media coverage for the campaign moving forward.
Democrats will meet on Jan. 15 to conduct party business and begin the process of electing delegates, but there will not be a vote. Democratic Iowans will be voting for a party nominee through a mail-in voting process that began Jan. 12 and concludes on March 5.
Follow our Mo News Instagram stories feed all day for coverage.
⏳ SPEED READ
🚨NATION
📌 Congress leaders agree on stopgap bill extending government funding to March (NPR)
📌 South braces for snow and ice as new storm collides with Arctic cold (CNN)
📌 Iowa principal who risked his life to protect students dies 10 days after high school shooting (NBC NEWS)
📌 Texas "physically barred" Border Patrol agents from trying to rescue migrants who drowned, federal officials say (CBS NEWS)
🌎 AROUND THE WORLD
📌 Taiwanese voters dismisses Chinese warnings and hand ruling party another presidential election win (CNN)
📌 Denmark’s King Frederik X takes the throne after abdication of Queen (CNN)
📌 Volcano erupts in Iceland, flowing lava reaches fishing town (REUTERS)
📌 North Korea launches ballistic missile, thought capable of hitting distant US bases (NPR)
📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH
📌 Peregrine moon lander heads back toward Earth and should burn up in the atmosphere (NPR)
📌 Biotech and pharma companies are betting on a promising class of cancer drugs to drive growth (CNBC)
📌 Alaska Airlines begins preliminary inspections on its grounded Boeing 737 Max 9 fleet (FOX BUSINESS)
📌 Hertz dumping 20,000 electric cars from fleet in massive selloff (FOX NEWS)
🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT
📌 'Mean Girls' is the Queen Bee of the box office, opens to $28 million (CNBC)
📌 Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes has helmet shattered during playoff game vs. Miami (AP)
📌 Ellen DeGeneres says Prince Harry and Meghan Markle adopted one of her chickens (PEOPLE)
📌 Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy declares for NFL draft (NBC NEWS)
🗓 ON THIS DAY: JANUARY 15
1967: The first Super Bowl game is played. the Green Bay Packers of the NFL defeated the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 35 to 10.
1974: The American television series Happy Days premiered on ABC.
2001: Wikipedia launches. The site features more than 6.8 million articles in more than 300 languages.
2009: Miracle on the Hudson: US Airways flight 1549, piloted by Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, landed in the Hudson River after the plane flew into a flock of geese shortly after takeoff.