Stock Market Hits Record High: Did We Avoid A Recession?

Written By Guest User

Breaking down where things stand as Dow passes 37,000

Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up!

 
 

Good morning,

If you call yourself a morning person, you can thank your Neanderthal genes.

Being an early riser has long been tied to personality, but new research suggests DNA inherited from our extinct Neanderthal cousins increases the chance we’re early risers.

☀️ While most genes that modern humans gained through ancient interbreeding with Neanderthals are gone, a small fraction remain. In the study, DNA from humans today was compared to genetic material retrieved from Neanderthal fossils. It turns out they carried some of the same clock-related genetic variants as people who report being early risers.

While it is a still a mystery as to why exactly they went extinct, let’s take a moment this AM to be grateful for the ‘morning person gene’ from our pre-historic friends.

Mosheh, Jill, & Lauren

📣 PUCK NEWS: GET THE INSIDE SCOOP

What do Mo News, CEOs, movie moguls, and the West Wing all have in common? We read Puck News for smart, engaging journalism, covering the inside story of Wall Street, DC, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood.

Puck begins where the news ends. Subscribe today for great scoops and reporting—access to 14 top journalists, 10 newsletters, and 4 insider podcasts. 

EXCLUSIVE MO NEWS DISCOUNT: Take 25% off your annual subscription today with the code MO25. 

🗞 SOME GOOD NEWS FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY

 

Traders react on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. via CNBC 

 

The Santa Claus rally on Wall Street is in full swing with a slew of good economic news this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit back to back record highs on Wednesday and Thursday—closing yesterday at 37,248.35 points. In all, the Dow is up about 30% since Sept. 30, 2022. The Bull Market is back.

NEWS FROM THE FED
As the Wall Street Journal notes, 2022 and 2023 have been wild for the economy: “Few economists would have written this script ahead of time.”

With inflation hitting levels not seen in decades, the Federal Reserve took unprecedented action: Raising interest rates 11 times since March 2022 to their highest level in more than 20 years.

The goal: Slow down the economy & dry up the cheap money supply in order to get people to spend less, thereby slowing down price increases (inflation).

The risk: Raising rates too quickly CAN also plunge the economy into a recession.

The payoff: At least as of now, the Fed has done what seemed impossible. Bringing inflation down while avoiding a recession.

At the end of this week’s Fed policy meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said, "There's little basis for thinking the economy is in a recession now.”

  • The Fed announced that they were effectively done increasing rates, leaving the benchmark short-term rate at a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%. The BIGGER News: the Fed signaled it would soon be CUTTING interest rates, forecasting three rate cuts for 2024. More are planned for 2025 and 2026.

Other positive news:

  • Mortgage rates dropped below 7% this week for the first time in four months.

  • Gross domestic product (overall US economic growth) increased at a 5.2% annualized rate last quarter, the fastest in nearly two years.

  • The annual consumer-price index (inflation) fell to 3.1% in November; it reached a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

TO QUOTE TAYLOR SWIFT: ARE WE OUT OF THE WOODS YET? ARE WE OUT OF THE WOODS YET? ARE WE OUT OF THE WOODS?

Not yet.

The Fed’s campaign has been successful in reducing inflation, but the job of taming inflation—returning it to the Fed’s 2% target—is far from complete. With help from lower gas prices, U.S. inflation was mostly unchanged last month.

  • Inflation dipped to 3.1%, down from a 3.2% year-over-year rise in October.

  • But apartment rents, restaurant meals, and auto insurance remained stubbornly high.

  • Furniture and appliances dropped in price last month.

  • Inflation should fall much closer to the Fed’s target by the end of 2024.

DO AMERICANS SEE THE LIGHT?
Consumer sentiment about the state of things jumped in December. This is crucial because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy.

  • American sentiment about the economy jumped 13%, as people became less worried about inflation and more optimistic about a number of issues. Sentiment is now about 39% above the all-time low measured in June of 2022, but still well below pre-pandemic levels.

Via: NBC

🗳️ BUT BUT BUT….

While President Biden and Democrats are crediting “Bidenomics” for the economic soft landing going into an election year, only 1 out of 5 Americans currently tell pollsters that the economy is “good” or “excellent.” The question remains how this will translate politically.

🎁 HOLIDAY SHOPPING BOOST
Surprisingly strong November retail sales add to the recent, good economic news for the U.S. and signal a strong start to the holiday season. Retail sales rose 0.3% in November from the month before.

PS: One way to help the economy and Mo News is by heading to the Mo News Merch shop. It makes great holiday gifts. 😉 

 

⏳ SPEED READ

 
 

🚨NATION

📌 Congress passes $886 billion defense policy bill, Biden to sign into law (REUTERS)

📌 13-year-old boy accused of planning mass shooting at Ohio synagogue (NBC NEWS)

📌 New York Republicans nominate ex-Israeli soldier in special election for George Santos’ seat (CNN)

📌 Former top FBI agent sentenced to 50 months for aiding Russian oligarch (BBC)

🌎 AROUND THE WORLD

📌 U.S. Naval officer jailed in Japan transferred to US custody, family says (ABC NEWS)

📌 Israel must move to "lower intensity phase" of war in weeks not months, Sullivan tells Netanyahu (AXIOS)

📌 Emboldened, energized Putin says there will be no peace in Ukraine (AP)

📌 EU agrees to open membership negotiations with Ukraine, Moldova (AP)

📌 Four arrested in Europe over alleged cross-border Hamas terrorism plot (GUARDIAN)

📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH

📌 Disney prepares for bitter battle as activist Peltz seeks two board seats (REUTERS)

📌 GM's Cruise laying off 900 employees, or 24% of its workforce (CNBC)

📌 Use of "morning after" pills doubles, teen sex declines in CDC survey (YAHOO)

📌 More doses of new RSV immunization for babies are on the way, White House announces (CNN)

🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT

📌 Andre Braugher died of lung cancer, Brooklyn Nine-Nine actor’s publicist says (GUARDIAN)

📌 Luke Combs apologizes to woman hit with costly legal bill for selling unofficial merchandise (CNN)

📌 With Washington Capitals, Wizards move to Virginia, owner pursues vision of a $10 billion sports empire around D.C. (CNBC)

📌 ‘The Crown’ final episodes are officially out on Netflix (DEADLINE)

🎉 CHEERS TO THE FREAKIN WKND

Guest User
Previous

U.S. Homelessness Hits New Level
Next

Biden Impeachment Inquiry Passes House