Plus a bipartisan plan to avoid a government shutdown

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Good morning,

Some surprising news to report: A bit of bipartisanship over on Capitol Hill.

Yes, you read that right.

The House on Tuesday passed a temporary spending bill that will avert a government shutdown this week. The bill passed with 209 Democratic and 127 Republican votes, while 93 Republicans and two Democrats voted against it.

[That wasn’t necessarily new House Speaker Mike Johnson’s initial plan. But that is where he ended up, after a number of conservatives said ‘no thanks’ to his plan to avert a shutdown.]

The bill now heads to the Senate, where Democratic and Republican leaders have voiced support.

The deal extends government funding at current levels for some federal agencies until mid-January and others until early February. Which means, we’ll likely be back in this same position in about 8 weeks.

See ya then 😉

Mosheh, Jill, & Lauren

🗞 THE INFLATION “FEVER BREAKS”

Finally, we have something positive to report on the economy.

New data from the Labor Department shows inflation— the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time— may be heading steadily back toward its pre-pandemic levels. And some analysts now say it’s possible the Fed won’t need to raise interest rates again.

Wall Street loved the latest inflation report, but economists warn high prices may be here to stay.

“THE FEVER HAS BROKEN”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers showed consumer prices were unchanged from September to October this year. Though, when we look at the last 12 months, prices rose 3.2% from October 2022.

We’ve come a long way, baby: In June of 2022, consumer prices were up by 9.1% from the year before, hitting a 40-year high. In September 2023, they were up by 3.7% over the previous 12 months.

As a way to tame inflation, the Fed has raised its key rate 11 times since March 2022. That’s lead to much higher rates on mortgages and many consumer and business loans. But the mission was effectively accomplished: cool down the economy and dry up the money supply in order to tame prices…all without starting a recession.

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY:

"The inflation fever has broken in the United States," wrote Comerica Bank’s chief economist.
Home Depot’s CFO said, “worst of the inflationary environment is behind us."

The Federal Reserve’s inflation target is 2% over the long term.

NOTICEABLE PRICE CHANGES
Economists say a key reason why many Americans have a gloomy view of the economy, despite very low unemployment and steady hiring, is that prices — on items that they buy regularly — remain much higher than they were three years ago. So, while price increases have slowed, we are still dealing with the aftermath of the last 36 months.

Gas: Averaged $3.35/gallon nationwide on Tuesday, down 42 cents from a year earlier. 46% higher than pre-pandemic.
Auto insurance: Jumped 1.9% just from September to October, has soared nearly 20% from a year earlier.
Milk: Declined 1.6% in past year, but 23% higher than pre-pandemic.
Ground beef: Jumped 7.9% in past year, and is 31% higher than pre-pandemic.
Eggs: Down 22.2% for the year.

PRICES HERE TO STAY
The good old days of cheap goods, and even cheaper services, may be long gone. From supply bottlenecks, worker shortages, and spiking prices that corporate America is passing along to consumers, don’t expect your grocery bill to fall too much anytime soon.

DEFLATION MAY NOT BE A GOOD SIGN
The situation is frustrating to consumers, but it’s important to note that prices suddenly dropping really isn’t a desired outcome. Deflation, meaning a broad decline in prices, is generally viewed as a negative by economists.

While deflation can drive down prices, profits and wages may also suffer and repaying debt becomes expensive. Oh, and it can also signal an impending recession and hard economic times.

✔︎ Mo News Reality Check: One person watching this all closely: President Biden. He is up for re-election in less than 365 days, and only 30% of voters approve of his handling of the economy. So, it is up to the White House to try to communicate the economic good news to a battered electorate still reeling from a couple years from sky-high inflation. Are these numbers going to be too little, too late? Let’s see what how much eggs cost next November.

⏳ SPEED READ

🚨NATION

📌 Republican senator, union boss almost come to blows in Senate hearing: 'Stand your butt up’; Bernie Sanders has to intervene (FOX NEWS)

📌 Former George Santos fundraiser pleads guilty to wire fraud (CBS NEWS)

📌 Georgia prosecutors seek emergency protective order in Trump case after confidential video disclosure (ABC NEWS)

📌 ‘Let our people go’: Nearly 300,000 rally in Washington for Israel, hostages’ release (TIMES OF ISRAEL)

🌎 AROUND THE WORLD

📌 Biden seeks to calm relationship with Xi amid global crises (POLITICO)

📌 Israeli military carries out operation inside al-Shifa hospital (AXIOS)

📌 Israel offers incubators for Gaza babies after Biden says hospitals "must be protected" (CBS NEWS)

📌 Russian convicted over Anna Politkovskaya’s murder pardoned after fighting in Ukraine (GUARDIAN)

📌 Iceland prepares to shield geothermal plant from risk of volcanic eruption (REUTERS)

📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH

📌 Effects of climate change worsening in every part of the US, report says (ABC NEWS)

📌 YouTube creators will soon have to disclose use of generative AI in videos or risk suspension (AP)

📌 Starbucks' unionized workers plan walkout on "Red Cup Day" this week (CBS NEWS)

📌 US lung cancer survival rates rise, but it’s still the leading cause of cancer death. One easy tool could help (CNN)

🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT

📌 ‘Friends’ actors Matt LeBlanc and Courteney Cox pay tribute to Matthew Perry (BBC)

📌 André 3000 to release 'New Blue Sun,' first album in 17 years (NPR)

📌 The N.F.L. looks beyond game day to try to create a streaming universe (NY TIMES)

📌 Princess Diana's final (and most risqué) evening gowns sold to U.S. collector (PEOPLE)

🗓 ON THIS DAY: NOVEMBER 15

1928: H.B. Reese, an employee of The Hershey Company, created Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups in his basement.
1977: 'Saturday Night Fever: The Original Movie Sound Track' was released. It spends 24 weeks on the Billboard charts.
1988: The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) adopts a declaration of independence and proclaimed an independent State of Palestine over Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip—despite not having any territorial control.
1995: Two days into a federal government shutdown, President Bill Clinton began a sexual relationship with then-White House intern Monica Lewinsky.
1996: 'Space Jam' starring Michael Jordan premiered in theaters, earning over $230 million in box offices worldwide.