Haley looks to New Hampshire after 3rd place result; Ramaswamy drops out

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Good morning,

We’re chugging some extra coffee this morning after a long holiday weekend and a late Monday night in the world of politics and entertainment.

Starting with entertainment, the 75th Emmy Awards took place on Monday night in LA after being delayed from September because of Hollywood strikes.

And the Emmy goes to… Succession, The Bear, and Beef all won big.

📺 Here’s the full list of winners.

Some highlights: Christina Applegate’s standing ovation, Elton John is an official EGOT, and Quinta Brunson is the first black woman in more than 30 years to win Best Actress in a Comedy for her role in Abbott Elementary.

Have a good one!

Mosheh, Jill, & Lauren

🗞 DONALD’S DOMINANT IOWA VICTORY

Donald Trump dominated the Iowa caucuses on Monday, with media outlets calling his victory just 31 minutes after the caucuses got underway. Some voters had yet to cast their ballots! (I actually shared my thoughts about that with the NY Times.)

In the close battle for second place, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis edged out former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

The numbers:

Trump got more than 50% of the vote.
DeSantis scored second place with about 21%.
- The Florida Gov made Iowa his focus for months, visiting all 99 counties and spending tens of millions of dollars.
  - After the results, he said: “They threw everything but the kitchen sink at us.” He claims he got his “ticket punched” to continue his run.
Haley landed in third with about 19% of the vote.
- In her speech last night, she maintained that it’s a “two-person” race between her and Trump. She has high hopes for a close second, or even a win over Trump in New Hampshire next Tuesday night.
Vivek Ramaswamy suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump after a poor fourth place performance.

The chilly below-freezing temps may have played a role in low voter turnout. NBC News estimates that there will be about 115,000 Republican caucusgoers — substantially less than the nearly 187,000 who caucused in 2016.

TRUMP’S BIG WIN
This is a huge victory for Trump, winning by a convincing margin, the largest-ever for a competitive Iowa caucus.

Exit polls showed that Iowa Republican voters said they don’t really care about Trump’s many legal problems, including four criminal indictments. In fact, about 2/3 of caucus voters said Trump would still be fit to be president, even if convicted of crime.
Other key numbers: Trump easily won caucusgoers ages 45 and older, with 56% support. Among voters younger than 45 years old: 34% backed Trump while DeSantis got 29%.
Haley won 63% of moderate voters vs. 20% for Trump, though moderates accounted for just 9% of the Iowa caucus voters. New Hampshire on Jan 23 offers a much larger group of moderate voters for Haley to win over.

IS THIS STILL A COMPETITION OR IS IT OVER?

It appears to be closer to over, barring a major surprise. And it is a remarkable comeback for Trump. His victory comes a little more than a year after he announced he was running for president again to little fanfare—in the aftermath of his 2020 loss, and the Jan 6 attack on the Capitol.

After opposing candidates spent a collective $100 million in Iowa to try to beat Trump, the former president showed last night that he is still the leader of the Republican party.
DeSantis spent the better part of the last six months in Iowa to only finish a distant second. It is not clear where he can beat Trump given polls show him trailing badly in upcoming primary states.
Haley appears to have consolidated the support of anti-Trump Republicans and moderates, but it is not clear that—beyond the New Hampshire primary—there are enough of them to make her the nominee. Notably, her home state South Carolina votes in February, but polls show that Trump is currently dominating her there.

WHAT’S NEXT?
All eyes on New Hampshire, the first GOP primary on January 23rd, one week from today.

There hasn’t been a poll since Chris Christie dropped out of the race, but if Haley gets most of his voters as expected, she will be within single digits of Trump.
In New Hampshire, independent voters can also cast ballots, which should help Haley.

The three top GOP candidates against Biden. Via: The Hill

GENERAL ELECTION IMPACT: We could see the Trump vs. Biden rematch really start in earnest as soon as next week. Following last night’s victory, if Trump can pull off a significant win in New Hampshire next Tuesday, that could be a knockout blow to Haley. The primary will be effectively over. And America will get the rematch a majority of voters have been dreading.

⏳ SPEED READ

🚨NATION

📌 Trump plans to attend start of new E. Jean Carroll defamation trial today (NBC NEWS)

📌 Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin released from hospital after 2 weeks, will work remotely 'for a period of time' (FOX NEWS)

📌 Brutal arctic blast expands its reach as the South deals with deadly snow and ice (CNN)

📌 Fulton County DA Fani Willis defends special prosecutor following allegation of romantic relationship (ABC NEWS)

🌎 AROUND THE WORLD

📌 Houthi ballistic missile strikes US-owned and operated cargo ship, US Central Command says (CNN)

📌 An Icelandic town is evacuated after a volcanic eruption sends lava into nearby homes (NPR)

📌 Taiwan loses diplomatic ally to China days after presidential election (REUTERS)

📌 Hamas fights with a patchwork of weapons built by Iran, China, Russia and North Korea (AP)

📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH

📌 AI to hit 40% of jobs and worsen inequality, IMF says (BBC)

📌 Redesigned Apple Watches not subject to import ban, U.S. Customs says (CNBC)

📌 Uber shutting down alcohol delivery service Drizly (AXIOS)

📌 Medical mistakes are more likely in women and minorities, study finds (NBC NEWS)

🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT

📌 ‘Oppenheimer’ leads Critics Choice Awards with 8 wins, ‘Barbie’ scores 6 (NBC NEWS)

📌 See stars arriving at the Emmy Awards red carpet (PEOPLE)

📌 Draymond Green returns against Grizzlies after serving 'indefinite' suspension (NBA)

📌 US Air Force officer crowned as 2024 Miss America (CNN)

🗓 ON THIS DAY: JANUARY 16

Visitor poses with Jimmy Buffett’s “Hemisphere Dancer” seaplane.

1919: Prohibition is ratified by the states. It was repealed more than a decade later.
1964: The musical Hello, Dolly! premiered on Broadway.
1991: Operation Desert Storm begins as the US-led coalition starts the first war in Iraq to push Saddam Hussein’s army out of Kuwait after they invaded and occupied the country.
1996: Jamaican police mistook Jimmy Buffett for a drug smuggler and shot at his seaplane (the Hemisphere Dancer) 7 times after it landed in the water. Bono of U2 was also on board with his family, along with Island Records head Chris Blackwell. None were injured.